Much has been made of the recent decision by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters to make no endorsement in the Presidential election. Media outlets and Republicans have pointed to the decision as evidence of Democrats’ declining strength with working-class men and union voters. Democrats have pushed back, arguing that the Teamsters were the only one of the 10 largest unions in the country not to endorse Harris. And now many key state and local Teamster unions have endorsed Harris, including in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Yet, there’s no denying that non-college older white men are now the core of the right-wing voting block. According to Pew data, Joe Biden got 33% of white non-college voters in 2020 (versus 92% of non-college Black voters and 55% of non-college Hispanic voters). Among white men overall, Biden got 40% of the vote. Biden also lost voters age 50-64, with only 47% of the vote. Put all that together, and it should be no surprise that the Teamsters membership has shifted to Trump. The Teamsters’ membership is 94% male with an average age of 50 (we don’t have the stats on education and race). In the past, union membership and values may have helped to counteract demographic and cultural trends among non-college white men, but times are changing.
The Teamsters decision tells us fairly little about young non-college men but it points to the risks and opportunities that lie ahead. Young men have become one of the most closely-watched swing groups in 2024 and will only become more important as they age into prime voters. Biden won 54% of young men voters (18-29) in 2020, and polls show Harris at right around 50%. Young Men Research Initiative has written about the mounting evidence that this group is moving to the right culturally and politically, with less support for the Democratic party and more concern that the Democratic party does not support men. At the same time, young men support unions more than any other demographic, even young women.
This high support comes at a time when young men have less opportunity to join a union than ever before. Union membership as a percentage of the workforce has been cut in half from 20% to 10% since 1983. The jobs that young men get, particularly hourly and part-time work, are rarely unionized. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“By age, workers ages 45 to 54 had the highest union membership rate in 2023, at 12.6 percent. Younger workers—those ages 16 to 24—had the lowest union membership rate, at 4.4 percent. In 2023, the union membership rate for full-time workers (10.9 percent) was more than double that for part-time workers (5.2 percent).”
To compound the problem, about 10% of 25-54 year old men are now neither employed or looking for work, up from 2.5% in 1954. So there are less young men actually in the workplace, in part because many feel that “good” jobs are not available.
To summarize, we have millions of young men who strongly support the concept of unions and unionization but are unlikely to become a union member anytime soon. The Economic Policy Institute has called this group the “union curious” and has called for new creative approaches to expand the universe of who unions can organize without requiring full collective bargaining. The Starbucks Union and Amazon Union, to give two high-profile examples, have shown the potential to organize young workers, including young men. But given the potential cultural and political appeal of unions to young men, we should also think about ways to reach more young men online, through social media, and through diverse influencers to talk about the powerful impact of unions- and to show that Democrats are the pro-union party. We should develop communications strategies to support and bolster pro-union views among young men (both in an out of the workforce), even if the vehicles for union organizing will take time to develop. From a policy perspective, Kamala Harris has been a strong supporter of the Pro Act, which would make it easier to organize across the country- a potentially strong talking point for young men on the fence. Improving the ability of young men to join unions may also convince more to join the workforce, with broader economic benefits.
The Teamsters decision was clearly frustrating for Democrats given that Biden has been called the “most pro-union president” in terms of his policy positions. However, we should see it as a wake-up call. If young men continue to turn to the right, it will not be long before other unions follow suit. On the other hand, if we build on the inherently pro-union views of most young men and use it to support new organizing and new communications strategies then we can shift that momentum and grow a new generation of pro-union voters and leaders.