Catalist report highlights young men's rightward shift in 2024
Major new report shows changes in the youth vote - particularly among men
Catalist, a leading research and voter data firm in the progressive space, released its 2024 post-election report. The data is clear: young men across racial lines were key to Trump’s victory. The Catalist data is particularly valuable because it goes beyond often misleading exit polls, by combining voter files, polling data, and Census data to give the most accurate picture of the electorate.
The report draws particular attention to shifts among young Black and Latino men, noting:
“Support drops were concentrated among the younger cohorts of voters, particularly young men. For instance, support [for Democrats, from 2020 to 2024] among young Black men dropped from 85% to 75% and support among young Latino men dropped from 63% to 47%.”
The chart below highlights that Democrats saw one of the steepest declines in support among young Latino men.
Democrats saw a 9-point drop in support among Latinos compared to 2020. The decline was nearly twice as high among Latino men aged 18–29, with support falling by 16 points, and as high as 17 points among irregular young Latino male voters.
A similar pattern emerged among young Black voters. From 2020 to 2024, young Black women shifted by just 2 points, while support among young Black men dropped by 10 points. These figures are striking compared to 12 years ago, when 94 percent of young Black men and 71 percent of young Latino men turned out for President Obama.
Among young voters overall, the “gender gap” (the difference in support for Democrats among women versus men) has risen from 8 points in 2012 to 17 points in the most recent election. This marks not only the widest gap in recent cycles, but the largest across all generations included in the data.
Areas for Future Exploration
John F. Kennedy famously reminded us “that victory has a thousand followers, but defeat is an orphan.” There were a number of factors in Trump’s victory and Democrats suffered significant setbacks across a number of core constituencies. But the role of men ages 18-29–especially those less engaged in politics–cannot be overlooked.
The Catalist report also emphasizes that drop-offs were less significant in battleground states, underscoring the importance of the Harris campaign’s messaging, field, and/or fundraising tactics to win over these voters. YMRI will continue to examine what strategies worked in communicating with and organizing these crucial voters.