Why Young Men Voters May Be More Likely To Swing Back
But Dems need to take action to capitalize
This chart from the recent YouGov/Economist poll is getting some attention. It shows a drop in President Trump’s approval rating among most age groups. But his approval rating with young adults drops off a cliff (from +5 to -29).
Separate YouGov data of just registered voters provided by YouGov Blue shows a similar drop in young adult approval for Trump among both young men and young women, but is particularly pronounced among young men. Net approval for Trump declined by 29 points among young men registered voters, a significantly bigger shift than any other demographic. In a matter of months, support for Trump among young men has gone down considerably. Generally we expect approval for a President to go up at the start and come down over time, but this is a rapid decline.
YouGov Blue’s Registered Voter Omnibus January B, 2025 and March B, 2025 waves.
What’s Driving This Sudden Change
We have talked in other posts about some of the specific issues that may be directly impacting the drop in Trump approval among young men, from tariffs to deportations to Elon Musk to ongoing concerns about the cost of living (the list goes on).
But in this post we want to talk about why young men may be one of the demographics most likely to shift back and forth between the political parties. This is a group that voted for Biden in 2020, and for Trump in 2024, so we know they are capable of shifting. Here are some of the factors that may explain their “swinginess”:
Young Men Don’t Like Politicians or Politics All That Much
YouGov data shows that even though young men are clearly watching a variety of political content, less than 40 percent of them say they actually enjoy content about "Politics." They prefer comedy, gaming content, sports, etc. which often has political undertones to it—or serves as an onramp to a political worldview via seemingly innocuous “cultural” content—but does not give the viewer or listener the overt impression they are digesting “political” content.
They also have markedly little admiration for elected officials as a career. “Entrepreneur” is at the top of the list of young mens’ most admired careers (“I don’t really admire any careers in particular” comes in at a close second place). Elected officials are in last place. This is not a population that has any great admiration for politics or politicians in particular, and this likely bleeds over into their relatively weaker partisan attachments.
Source: Young Men Research Initiative survey of 1,092 US men aged 18-29, July 2024.
All Voters Have Become Less Attached To Political Parties
2024 exit polls showed that 34% of voters self-identified as independents, compared to 34% for Republicans and 32% for Democrats. This was the first time that independents out-numbered one of the two major political parties in turnout. Young adults are typically more Democratic-leaning than the overall population. Even so, 39% of young men identified with no political party in 2024, versus 32% for Democrats and 29% for Republicans. When voters are less attached to a specific political party, they are more likely to shift based on perceived dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Social Media Drives Faster Shifts In Opinion By Amplifying Negative Content
We know that social media algorithms have a tendency to highlight more negative content as a way of driving engagement. Among other negative consequences, this may have the tendency of increasing dissatisfaction with the status quo and hurting incumbents. As young adults rely more heavily on social media and viral content as sources of news, they may be even more susceptible to a negativity bias. The Young Men Research Project’s polling on young men’s use of social networks found that the top site was YouTube, followed by Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, TikTok and Reddit. Notably, some of the prominent pro-Trump young men online influencers, from Joe Rogan to Dave Portnoy, have started to publicly criticize pieces of his agenda. Those cracks could easily increase over time, and be further amplified via social media.
American Voters Are Just More Fickle Overall
We have always had thermostatic public opinion in US elections, with swings back and forth between Democrats and Republicans. But the swings have gotten faster. Incumbent Presidents and parties used to have an advantage. Now they seem to have a disadvantage. Here are the last 40 years in Presidential elections:
o 1980-1992- Republicans win- 12 years
o 1992-2000- Democrats win- 8 years
o 2000-2008- Republicans win- 8 years
o 2008-2016- Democrats win- 8 years
o 2016-2020- Republicans win- 4 years
o 2020-2024- Democrats win- 4 years
o 2024-2028- Republicans win- 4 years
o 2028-2032- ???
It’s possible that young men are the prime example of an electorate that has gotten more fickle, more dissatisfied with the status quo, more “swingy” than ever before. We could suggest a number of reasons why the overall electorate may be getting “swingier” or whether it’s good for our democracy but that would require a longer post.
Trump Is Not Addressing Young Mens’ Most Important Issues
While Trump campaigned on issues at the top of the list of young mens’ priorities, namely inflation, the economy, and the cost of living, he has failed to prioritize delivering on those promises in the first few months of his term. In our July 2024 Young Men Research Project poll of young men, we found that inflation was THE top issue (similar to other demographics). Trump said that on ”day 1” he would bring prices down (fact check courtesy of Senator Booker). In fact, from eggs to video game systems, prices are going up. Young men may be looking at the Trump administration’s current policies—or at least those that have been grabbing headlines—and wondering if they were sold a false bill of goods. The precipitous drop in support for Trump may reflect a snapshot of young men’s frustration with Trump’s lack of focus on the issues they care most about.
Young Men As The Quintessential Swing Voter
The “swinginess” of young men voters suggests that the gains made by Trump in 2024 could be reversed. This is not a demographic that is locked into one political party or candidate. They can be persuaded. Therefore, the Left needs to look to quickly capitalize on issues where young men are dissatisfied, and where their online environment is showing signs of Trump’s weakness. The Left also needs to start presenting an agenda that can speak to the challenges facing young men. To be clear, President Trump still retains strong support among a large segment of the manosphere (see his recent trip to watch UFC), and there is no guarantee that this swing will happen, or that it will translate into votes. But the recent drop in Trump’s approval shows that it is certainly possible.
The Democrats have turned their backs on men for the last 30 years. They funded women's health, but ignored men's health. Has it occurred to you and the Democrats to do something to actually HELP men?
Tim Walz talked about "21st century masculinity". But he never mentioned the underfunding of prostate cancer, or the fact that men account for 80% of suicides,
Trump has began deporting illegal aliens. American men are now walking into workplaces where the illegals were deported, and getting hired on the spot. THAT is helping American men.
The Democrats continue to state on their website that they serve women, but not men. No self-respecting man will vote for Democrats.
I could have told you this. But the problem is the next step: who do they turn to? The Republicans are—for better or worse—the only show in town. Your choices are the Republicans who don’t disrespect men, or Democrats who go out of their way *just* to insult and deride young men. So where do you go?