New York City’s mayoral primary ends on Tuesday. While the race has already drawn national attention, it also offers a glimpse into the Democratic party’s defining debates heading into 2026 and 2028–on issues ranging from affordable housing to public safety.
We’ve reviewed the most recent polls and found that Zohran Mamdani, the young Assemblymember from Queens, is the leading candidate among Democratic men. Emerson College’s latest poll puts Mamdani at 34% among men surveyed, ahead of Andrew Cuomo (30%) and Brad Lander (15%). Data for Progress’ most recent poll similarly shows Mandani narrowly leading Cuomo among men (34-33). Interestingly, both polls show Cuomo outperforming Mamdami among women, where he leads by nine to ten points
Young New Yorkers are Mamdami’s most adamant supporters. According to Data for Progress, he commands a 61% majority among voters under 45, compared to just 15% for Cuomo. While the small sample sizes and typically low primary turnout make it hard to isolate young men specifically, the overlap between male and young voter support suggests Mamdani is likely winning this group handily.
Here’s our theory on why.
The Data For Progress poll reveals that the cost of housing is the top overall issue for NYC Democrats, and especially for men and young voters. For example, 39% of voters under 45 said it was their top issue, versus 23% for those over 45. Among men, 32% said it was their top issue, versus 26% for women.
New York may be one of the most expensive cities in the country, but concerns over the cost of living are present everywhere. Inflation and the cost of housing were the top concerns for young men in the 2024 election, and our own recent national polling shows overwhelming support among young men for changing the rules to allow more housing construction nationwide.
During the 2024 election, Kamala Harris offered blueprints for lowering the cost of everything from housing to health care to college. While her plans were detailed, she struggled to communicate them in a way that resonated. One campaign ad, for instance, highlighted outcomes like building three million new homes or lowering insulin costs, without explaining how they could be achieved (expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, etc). In part, the scope and complexity of the Harris proposals made them difficult to convey in a 30 second or 1 minute tv spot. Despite millions spent on campaign ads, many voters never fully grasped her agenda for bringing down costs. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration seems to be on a mission to raise prices, imposing massive tariffs that will increase prices on consumer goods while simultaneously cutting social services like Medicaid and food stamps.
Mamdami has surged in the polls with a laser focus on affordability, explained in the simplest of terms. Free buses. Affordable housing. Public grocery stores. Critics say he’s too liberal, his ideas unworkable and naïve. But his strategy is working. Mamdani seems to have made the calculation that it’s better to take big swings on policies that people will hear and understand, even if it means less complicated or less comprehensive proposals. He’s also shown flexibility, embracing market-based reforms where necessary. Mamdami has borrowed a page or two from the “Abundance” agenda, supporting reduced zoning regulations to spur more housing. Still, the centerpiece of his campaign are proposals that can fit on a bumper sticker and squarely address affordability.
Should Mamdani emerge victorious in Tuesday’s primary, his message of affordability may be a key reason why. Our research make plain that young men want to be able to protect and provide for their family, and that home ownership remains a defining life goal. Mamdani is tapping into these aspirations, and it may just work out.
One note of caution. While the 33-year-old has undeniable momentum, women and older voters tend to vote at much higher rates in primaries, playing to Cuomo’s advantage. This race could prove to be a watershed moment – we’ll be watching closely.
The two big lessons people can take from Zohran's win with respect to young men.
1. It's the afforbability/economy stupid.
2. Shut up about the tech industry.